
Our class is currently studying data analysis and probability, and this is one of my favorite units because there are so many amazing lesson ideas that are very hands-on.
There are several lessons I enjoy from AIMS, and this one comes from the AIMS Solve-It! 4th Grade book. Here's the deal: You can download the lesson and the cute handouts for $2 directly from the aimsedu.org site. One thing I enjoy about this lesson is hearing the conversations the kids have while doing the activity. The language is mathematically rich, and the format never allows them to "tune out" while a partner is doing their turn.
The lesson, which uses teddy bear counters (but could be done with linkercubes), is a great lesson in the concepts and language of probability. You give small groups different opaque bags -- i.e., lunchbags -- filled with 12 teddy bear counters. Each bag has a different amount of yellow or green counters, and the bag is labeled with the amount of each color. For example, a bag may say "11 yellow, 1 green."
The kids then use the amazing AIMS handouts to record predictions as they and their partners keep pulling out one bear at a time. The handout helps them track what has already been drawn and what is left. Each time, they make a guess, color in a bear on the handout, then draw a bear from the bag and record the actual color selected. The key is that they'll refine their guesses with each bear pulled out of the bag.
After doing this activity with three different bags, the students are then asked to create bags with different probabilities. For instance, 12 bears in the bag. Create a bag where it is unlikely (not impossible) that a green bear would be drawn. They have four guidelines to create their own bear bags.
Then the class has an individual check-in assessment about the terms: likely, certain, unlikely, and impossible -- all using hypothetical scenarios. There is also a handout with analysis questions that really get them thinking about the process. I usually front-load them with the languages using the great picture book, It's Probably Penny, by Loreen Leedy.
You can set up a lesson along these lines...but for two dollars, AIMS has a great PDF formatted lesson plan with handouts ready to go.
